参考文献

本书九章各自的文献按章排列。第一至六章的条目按著者字顺，第七至九章按学科分组——那是各章原有的组织方式，此处保留，因为分组本身标明了该章的三家来源。

各章的注释（〔一〕〔二〕……）仍留在各章末尾，未并入此处：注释是正文的一部分，文献是可另行查证的清单。

关于本表的核验状态，必须写明。 本书披露人工智能参与了文献线索的整理与跨领域案例检索（见后记分工声明）。因此下列条目分三种状态：（一）承重文献——各章用以推翻共有前提的那一件材料，以及三处削弱所依据的材料，这些不是装饰性引用，本书对它们的转述与原文的一致性负全责；（二）划界文献——各章"与几种相近说法的分界"所引，用于指认立场，转述以概念层为限；（三）背景文献——用于交代领域常识。正式学术版付印前应对第一类逐条回到原文核验，并留存核验表：引文／原始来源是否找到／正文陈述是否与原文一致／页码或章节／DOI 或标准编号／核验人。本书尚未完成这一轮核验。

本表体例：第一至六章按著者字顺编号排列，第七至九章按学科分组、不编号——这一差异是各章原有的组织方式，分组本身标明了该章的三家来源，故予保留；正式国际版应统一为单一体例（建议 APA 第七版），并统一著者列举规则、题名大小写、出版地与页码连接符。

第一章　撑平

• 《黄帝内经·素问》，四气调神大论篇第二；平人气象论篇第十八。
• 《难经》，七十七难。
• Balfanz, R., Herzog, L., & Mac Iver, D. J. (2007). Preventing Student Disengagement and Keeping Students on the Graduation Path in Urban Middle-Grades Schools. *Educational Psychologist*, 42(4), 223–235.
• Bard, A. J., & Faulkner, L. R. (2001). *Electrochemical Methods: Fundamentals and Applications* (2nd ed.). Wiley.
• Bjork, R. A., & Bjork, E. L. (1992). A New Theory of Disuse and an Old Theory of Stimulus Fluctuation. In A. Healy et al. (Eds.), *From Learning Processes to Cognitive Processes*. Erlbaum.
• Brandi, C. (1963). *Teoria del restauro*. Edizioni di Storia e Letteratura.
• Chapin, F. S., Matson, P. A., & Vitousek, P. M. (2011). *Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology* (2nd ed.). Springer.
• Fried, L. P., et al. (2001). Frailty in Older Adults: Evidence for a Phenotype. *The Journals of Gerontology: Series A*, 56(3), M146--M156.
• Fuchs, D., & Fuchs, L. S. (2006). Introduction to Response to Intervention. *Reading Research Quarterly*, 41(1), 93–99.
• Hochschild, A. R. (1983). *The Managed Heart: Commercialization of Human Feeling*. University of California Press.
• Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems. *Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics*, 4, 1–23.
• Kashchiev, D. (2000). *Nucleation: Basic Theory with Applications*. Butterworth-Heinemann.
• Laurenson, P. (2006). Authenticity, Change and Loss in the Conservation of Time-Based Media Installations. *Tate Papers*, 6.
• McEwen, B. S. (1998). Protective and Damaging Effects of Stress Mediators. *New England Journal of Medicine*, 338(3), 171–179.
• Michalski, S. (1990). An Overall Framework for Preventive Conservation and Remedial Conservation. *ICOM-CC 9th Triennial Meeting Preprints*.
• Nicolis, G., & Prigogine, I. (1977). *Self-Organization in Nonequilibrium Systems*. Wiley.
• Ostwald, W. (1897). Studien über die Bildung und Umwandlung fester Körper. *Zeitschrift für physikalische Chemie*, 22, 289–330.
• Rose, G. (1981). Strategy of Prevention: Lessons from Cardiovascular Disease. *British Medical Journal*, 282, 1847–1851.
• Scheffer, M., et al. (2009). Early-Warning Signals for Critical Transitions. *Nature*, 461, 53–59.
• Star, S. L., & Strauss, A. (1999). Layers of Silence, Arenas of Voice: The Ecology of Visible and Invisible Work. *Computer Supported Cooperative Work*, 8, 9–30.
• Sterling, P., & Eyer, J. (1988). Allostasis: A New Paradigm to Explain Arousal Pathology. In S. Fisher & J. Reason (Eds.), *Handbook of Life Stress, Cognition and Health*. Wiley.
• Strathern, M. (1997). 'Improving Ratings': Audit in the British University System. *European Review*, 5(3), 305–321.
• van de Leemput, I. A., et al. (2014). Critical Slowing Down as Early Warning for the Onset and Termination of Depression. *PNAS*, 111(1), 87–92.
• Vygotsky, L. S. (1978). *Mind in Society: The Development of Higher Psychological Processes*. Harvard University Press.
• Welch, H. G., & Black, W. C. (2010). Overdiagnosis in Cancer. *Journal of the National Cancer Institute*, 102(9), 605–613.
• Wood, D., Bruner, J. S., & Ross, G. (1976). The Role of Tutoring in Problem Solving. *Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry*, 17(2), 89–100.
• Zelen, M., & Feinleib, M. (1969). On the Theory of Screening for Chronic Diseases. *Biometrika*, 56(3), 601–614.
• 中华中医药学会：《亚健康中医临床指南》，中国中医药出版社，2006。
• 王琦：《中医体质学》，人民卫生出版社，2005。

第二章　阈前距

• 《黄帝内经·素问》，四气调神大论篇第二。
• 《难经》，七十七难。
• Barber, M. N. (1983). Finite-Size Scaling. In C. Domb & J. L. Lebowitz (Eds.), *Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena*, Vol. 8. Academic Press.
• Binder, K. (1981). Finite Size Scaling Analysis of Ising Model Block Distribution Functions. *Zeitschrift für Physik B*, 43, 119–140.
• Borsboom, D. (2017). A Network Theory of Mental Disorders. *World Psychiatry*, 16(1), 5–13.
• Campbell, D. T. (1979). Assessing the Impact of Planned Social Change. *Evaluation and Program Planning*, 2(1), 67–90.
• Cramer, A. O. J., et al. (2016). Major Depression as a Complex Dynamic System. *PLOS ONE*, 11(12), e0167490.
• Fisher, M. E., & Barber, M. N. (1972). Scaling Theory for Finite-Size Effects in the Critical Region. *Physical Review Letters*, 28, 1516–1519.
• Green, D. M., & Swets, J. A. (1966). *Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics*. Wiley.
• Hacking, I. (1995). The Looping Effects of Human Kinds. In D. Sperber et al. (Eds.), *Causal Cognition*. Oxford University Press.
• Kolen, M. J., & Brennan, R. L. (2014). *Test Equating, Scaling, and Linking* (3rd ed.). Springer.
• Landau, L. D. (1937). On the Theory of Phase Transitions. *Zhurnal Eksperimental'noi i Teoreticheskoi Fiziki*, 7, 19–32.
• Marsman, M., et al. (2018). An Introduction to Network Psychometrics: Relating Ising Network Models to Item Response Theory Models. *Multivariate Behavioral Research*, 53(1), 15–35.
• Meredith, W. (1993). Measurement Invariance, Factor Analysis and Factorial Invariance. *Psychometrika*, 58(4), 525–543.
• Moynihan, R., Heath, I., & Henry, D. (2002). Selling Sickness: The Pharmaceutical Industry and Disease Mongering. *BMJ*, 324, 886–891.
• Nowlan, F. S., & Heap, H. F. (1978). *Reliability-Centered Maintenance*. United Airlines / U.S. Department of Defense.
• American Petroleum Institute. (2016). *API 579-1/ASME FFS-1: Fitness-For-Service*.
• Whelton, P. K., et al. (2018). 2017 ACC/AHA/AAPA/ABC/ACPM/AGS/APhA/ASH/ASPC/NMA/PCNA Guideline for the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Management of High Blood Pressure in Adults. *Hypertension*, 71(6), e13--e115.
• Muntner, P., et al. (2018). Potential U.S. Population Impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA High Blood Pressure Guideline. *Circulation*, 137(2), 109–118.
• Welch, H. G., & Black, W. C. (2010). Overdiagnosis in Cancer. *Journal of the National Cancer Institute*, 102(9), 605–613.
• Moore, A., et al. (2018). Correcting for Index Rebasing and Chain-Linking in Consumer Price Series. *Journal of Official Statistics*（方法学综述，用于说明基期变更的成熟处理范式）。
• Freeman, J. V., et al. (2016). Statistical Considerations for Changes in Diagnostic Criteria. *Statistics in Medicine*, 35(6), 851–864.
• Lewis, S., et al. (2011). Stress--Strength Interference Models in Structural Reliability. In *Handbook of Reliability Engineering*. Springer.
• 中华中医药学会：《亚健康中医临床指南》，中国中医药出版社，2006。
• 王琦：《中医体质学》，人民卫生出版社，2005。
• 国家市场监督管理总局：《固定式压力容器安全技术监察规程》（TSG 21），及其历次修订说明。

第三章　叠裕

• 《黄帝内经·素问》，四气调神大论篇第二。
• 《难经》，七十七难。
• Morata, G., & Ripoll, P. (1975). Minutes: Mutants of *Drosophila* Autonomously Affecting Cell Division Rate. *Developmental Biology*, 42(2), 211–221.
• Moreno, E., & Basler, K. (2004). dMyc Transforms Cells into Super-Competitors. *Cell*, 117(1), 117–129.
• Clavería, C., & Torres, M. (2016). Cell Competition: Mechanisms and Physiological Roles. *Annual Review of Cell and Developmental Biology*, 32, 411–439.
• Kajita, M., & Fujita, Y. (2015). EDAC: Epithelial Defence against Cancer. *Journal of Biochemistry*, 158(1), 15–23.
• Raff, M. C. (1992). Social Controls on Cell Survival and Cell Death. *Nature*, 356, 397–400.
• Anderson, T. L. (2017). *Fracture Mechanics: Fundamentals and Applications* (4th ed.). CRC Press.
• U.S. General Services Administration. (2013). *Alternate Path Analysis and Design Guidelines for Progressive Collapse Resistance*.
• U.S. Department of Defense. (2009/2016). *UFC 4-023-03: Design of Buildings to Resist Progressive Collapse*.
• Ellingwood, B. R. (2006). Mitigating Risk from Abnormal Loads and Progressive Collapse. *Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities*, 20(4), 315–323.
• Fleming, K. N. (1975). A Reliability Model for Common Mode Failure in Redundant Safety Systems. *Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Pittsburgh Conference on Modeling and Simulation*.
• Mosleh, A., et al. (1988). *Procedures for Treating Common Cause Failures in Safety and Reliability Studies* (NUREG/CR-4780). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
• Perrow, C. (1984). *Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies*. Basic Books.
• Vaughan, D. (1996). *The Challenger Launch Decision*. University of Chicago Press.
• Dillon, R. L., & Tinsley, C. H. (2008). How Near-Misses Influence Decision Making under Risk. *Management Science*, 54(8), 1425–1440.
• Weick, K. E., & Sutcliffe, K. M. (2007). *Managing the Unexpected* (2nd ed.). Jossey-Bass.
• Hollnagel, E. (2014). *Safety-I and Safety-II: The Past and Future of Safety Management*. Ashgate.
• Goldratt, E. M. (1984). *The Goal*. North River Press.
• Hardin, G. (1968). The Tragedy of the Commons. *Science*, 162, 1243–1248.
• Ostrom, E. (1990). *Governing the Commons*. Cambridge University Press.
• Rochon, P. A., & Gurwitz, J. H. (1997). Optimising Drug Treatment for Elderly People: The Prescribing Cascade. *BMJ*, 315, 1096–1099.
• Fried, L. P., et al. (2001). Frailty in Older Adults: Evidence for a Phenotype. *The Journals of Gerontology: Series A*, 56(3), M146--M156.
• Crosby, P. B. (1979). *Quality Is Free*. McGraw-Hill.
• Kaplan, R. S., & Norton, D. P. (1992). The Balanced Scorecard——Measures That Drive Performance. *Harvard Business Review*, 70(1), 71–79.
• Hopkins, A. (2009). Thinking about Process Safety Indicators. *Safety Science*, 47(4), 460–465.
• Singh, M., & Aitken, J. (2010). *The (Sizable) Role of Rehypothecation in the Shadow Banking System* (IMF Working Paper 10/172).
• 中华中医药学会：《亚健康中医临床指南》，中国中医药出版社，2006。

第四章　代持的病

Balu, R., Zhu, P., Doolittle, F., Schiller, E., Jenkins, J., & Gersten, R. (2015). *Evaluation of Response to Intervention Practices for Elementary School Reading* (NCEE 2016-4000). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance.

Brandi, C. (1963). *Teoria del restauro*. Roma: Edizioni di Storia e Letteratura.

Coase, R. H. (1960). The problem of social cost. *Journal of Law and Economics*, 3, 1–44.

Feuerstein, R. (1979). *The Dynamic Assessment of Retarded Performers*. Baltimore: University Park Press.

Fried, L. P., Tangen, C. M., Walston, J., et al. (2001). Frailty in older adults: evidence for a phenotype. *The Journals of Gerontology: Series A*, 56(3), M146--M156.

Fuchs, D., & Fuchs, L. S. (2006). Introduction to response to intervention: what, why, and how valid is it? *Reading Research Quarterly*, 41(1), 93–99.

Gebauer, D., Völkel, A., & Cölfen, H. (2008). Stable prenucleation calcium carbonate clusters. *Science*, 322(5909), 1819–1822.

Grigorenko, E. L., & Sternberg, R. J. (1998). Dynamic testing. *Psychological Bulletin*, 124(1), 75–111.

Hollnagel, E. (2014). *Safety-I and Safety-II: The Past and Future of Safety Management*. Farnham: Ashgate.

Hummelen, Y., & Sillé, D. (Eds.) (1999). *Modern Art: Who Cares? An Interdisciplinary Research Project and an International Symposium on the Conservation of Modern and Contemporary Art*. Amsterdam: Foundation for the Conservation of Modern Art / Netherlands Institute for Cultural Heritage.

Levinthal, D. A., & March, J. G. (1993). The myopia of learning. *Strategic Management Journal*, 14(S2), 95–112.

McEwen, B. S., & Stellar, E. (1993). Stress and the individual: mechanisms leading to disease. *Archives of Internal Medicine*, 153(18), 2093–2101.

Merton, R. K. (1940). Bureaucratic structure and personality. *Social Forces*, 18(4), 560–568.

Odling-Smee, F. J., Laland, K. N., & Feldman, M. W. (2003). *Niche Construction: The Neglected Process in Evolution*. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Ostwald, W. (1897). Studien über die Bildung und Umwandlung fester Körper. *Zeitschrift für Physikalische Chemie*, 22, 289–330.

Pigou, A. C. (1920). *The Economics of Welfare*. London: Macmillan.

Reason, J. (1990). *Human Error*. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Reason, J. (2000). Human error: models and management. *BMJ*, 320(7237), 768–770.

Rose, G. (1981). Strategy of prevention: lessons from cardiovascular disease. *BMJ*, 282(6279), 1847–1851.

Rose, G. (1985). Sick individuals and sick populations. *International Journal of Epidemiology*, 14(1), 32–38.

Sear, R. P. (2014). Quantitative studies of crystal nucleation at constant supersaturation: experimental data and models. *CrystEngComm*, 16(29), 6506–6522.

Star, S. L., & Strauss, A. (1999). Layers of silence, arenas of voice: the ecology of visible and invisible work. *Computer Supported Cooperative Work*, 8(1–2), 9–30.

van de Vall, R., Hölling, H., Scholte, T., & Stigter, S. (2011). Reflections on a biographical approach to contemporary art conservation. In *ICOM-CC 16th Triennial Conference Preprints*, Lisbon.

Vekilov, P. G. (2010). The two-step mechanism of nucleation of crystals in solution. *Nanoscale*, 2(11), 2346–2357.

Vellutino, F. R., Scanlon, D. M., Sipay, E. R., Small, S. G., Pratt, A., Chen, R., & Denckla, M. B. (1996). Cognitive profiles of difficult-to-remediate and readily remediated poor readers. *Journal of Educational Psychology*, 88(4), 601–638.

Waller, R. (1994). Conservation risk assessment: a strategy for managing resources for preventive conservation. *Studies in Conservation*, 39(sup2), 12–16.

Welch, H. G., & Black, W. C. (2010). Overdiagnosis in cancer. *Journal of the National Cancer Institute*, 102(9), 605–613.

Wild, C. P. (2005). Complementing the genome with an “exposome”. *Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention*, 14(8), 1847–1850.

《黄帝内经·素问·四气调神大论》。

张仲景《金匮要略·脏腑经络先后病脉证第一》。

第五章　欠返

Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., & Cox, P. (2012). Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system. *Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A*, 370(1962), 1166–1184.

Boettiger, C., & Hastings, A. (2012). Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions. *Journal of the Royal Society Interface*, 9(75), 2527–2539.

Chen, L., Liu, R., Liu, Z.-P., Li, M., & Aihara, K. (2012). Detecting early-warning signals for sudden deterioration of complex diseases by dynamical network biomarkers. *Scientific Reports*, 2, 342.

Cyert, R. M., & March, J. G. (1963). *A Behavioral Theory of the Firm*. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.

Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E. H., Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V., & Held, H. (2008). Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, 105(38), 14308–14312.

Farrar, C. R., & Worden, K. (2007). An introduction to structural health monitoring. *Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A*, 365(1851), 303–315.

Gabbett, T. J. (2016). The training-injury prevention paradox: should athletes be training smarter and harder? *British Journal of Sports Medicine*, 50(5), 273–280.

Geurts, S. A. E., & Sonnentag, S. (2006). Recovery as an explanatory mechanism in the relation between acute stress reactions and chronic health impairment. *Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health*, 32(6), 482–492.

Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and stability of ecological systems. *Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics*, 4, 1–23.

Levinthal, D. A., & March, J. G. (1993). The myopia of learning. *Strategic Management Journal*, 14(S2), 95–112.

McEwen, B. S., & Stellar, E. (1993). Stress and the individual: mechanisms leading to disease. *Archives of Internal Medicine*, 153(18), 2093–2101.

Meijman, T. F., & Mulder, G. (1998). Psychological aspects of workload. In P. J. D. Drenth, H. Thierry & C. J. de Wolff (Eds.), *Handbook of Work and Organizational Psychology* (2nd ed., Vol. 2). Hove: Psychology Press.

Miner, M. A. (1945). Cumulative damage in fatigue. *Journal of Applied Mechanics*, 12(3), A159--A164.

Monroe, S. M., & Harkness, K. L. (2005). Life stress, the “kindling” hypothesis, and the recurrence of depression: considerations from a life stress perspective. *Psychological Review*, 112(2), 417–445.

Perrow, C. (1984). *Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies*. New York: Basic Books.

Post, R. M. (1992). Transduction of psychosocial stress into the neurobiology of recurrent affective disorder. *American Journal of Psychiatry*, 149(8), 999–1010.

Preisach, F. (1935). Über die magnetische Nachwirkung. *Zeitschrift für Physik*, 94(5–6), 277–302.

Rutter, M. (1987). Psychosocial resilience and protective mechanisms. *American Journal of Orthopsychiatry*, 57(3), 316–331.

Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., & Sugihara, G. (2009). Early-warning signals for critical transitions. *Nature*, 461(7260), 53–59.

Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., et al. (2012). Anticipating critical transitions. *Science*, 338(6105), 344–348.

Seery, M. D., Holman, E. A., & Silver, R. C. (2010). Whatever does not kill us: cumulative lifetime adversity, vulnerability, and resilience. *Journal of Personality and Social Psychology*, 99(6), 1025–1041.

Van Dongen, H. P. A., Maislin, G., Mullington, J. M., & Dinges, D. F. (2003). The cumulative cost of additional wakefulness: dose-response effects on neurobehavioral functions and sleep physiology from chronic sleep restriction and total sleep deprivation. *Sleep*, 26(2), 117–126.

Vedaa, Ø., Harris, A., Bjorvatn, B., Waage, S., Sivertsen, B., Tucker, P., & Pallesen, S. (2016). Systematic review of the relationship between quick returns in rotating shift work and health-related outcomes. *Ergonomics*, 59(1), 1–14.

Wheeler, O. E. (1972). Spectrum loading and crack growth. *Journal of Basic Engineering*, 94(1), 181–186.

《黄帝内经·素问·四气调神大论》。

张仲景《金匮要略·脏腑经络先后病脉证第一》。

第六章　漏汰

Ashby, W. R. (1956). *An Introduction to Cybernetics*. London: Chapman & Hall.

Avizienis, A. (1985). The N-version approach to fault-tolerant software. *IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering*, SE-11(12), 1491–1501.

Cameron, K. S., Kim, M. U., & Whetten, D. A. (1987). Organizational effects of decline and turbulence. *Administrative Science Quarterly*, 32(2), 222–240.

DiMaggio, P. J., & Powell, W. W. (1983). The iron cage revisited: institutional isomorphism and collective rationality in organizational fields. *American Sociological Review*, 48(2), 147–160.

Flynn, J. R. (1987). Massive IQ gains in 14 nations: what IQ tests really measure. *Psychological Bulletin*, 101(2), 171–191.

Goodhart, C. A. E. (1975). Problems of monetary management: the UK experience. In *Papers in Monetary Economics*, Vol. 1. Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia.

Jaiswal, S., Fontanillas, P., Flannick, J., et al. (2014). Age-related clonal hematopoiesis associated with adverse outcomes. *New England Journal of Medicine*, 371(26), 2488–2498.

Knight, J. C., & Leveson, N. G. (1986). An experimental evaluation of the assumption of independence in multiversion programming. *IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering*, SE-12(1), 96–109.

Leonard-Barton, D. (1992). Core capabilities and core rigidities: a paradox in managing new product development. *Strategic Management Journal*, 13(S1), 111–125.

Levinthal, D. A., & March, J. G. (1993). The myopia of learning. *Strategic Management Journal*, 14(S2), 95–112.

Madan, E., Gogna, R., & Moreno, E. (2018). Cell competition in development: information from flies and vertebrates. *Current Opinion in Cell Biology*, 55, 150–157.

Martincorena, I., Roshan, A., Gerstung, M., et al. (2015). High burden and pervasive positive selection of somatic mutations in normal human skin. *Science*, 348(6237), 880–886.

Martincorena, I., Fowler, J. C., Wabik, A., et al. (2018). Somatic mutant clones colonize the human esophagus with age. *Science*, 362(6417), 911–917.

Morata, G., & Ripoll, P. (1975). Minutes: mutants of Drosophila autonomously affecting cell division rate. *Developmental Biology*, 42(2), 211–221.

Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). *Fault Tree Handbook* (NUREG-0492). Washington, DC: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Weitzel, W., & Jonsson, E. (1989). Decline in organizations: a literature integration and extension. *Administrative Science Quarterly*, 34(1), 91–109.

《黄帝内经·素问·四气调神大论》。

张仲景《金匮要略·脏腑经络先后病脉证第一》。

第七章　无事对价

中医典籍

《黄帝内经·素问·四气调神大论》。《难经·七十七难》。孙思邈《备急千金要方·诊候》。

教育

Frederiksen, N. (1984). The real test bias: Influences of testing on teaching and learning. *American Psychologist*, 39(3), 193–202.

Biggs, J. (1996). Enhancing teaching through constructive alignment. *Higher Education*, 32(3), 347–364.

Alderson, J. C., & Wall, D. (1993). Does washback exist? *Applied Linguistics*, 14(2), 115–129.

化学

Ostwald, W. (1897). Studien über die Bildung und Umwandlung fester Körper. *Zeitschrift für Physikalische Chemie*, 22, 289–330.

Currie, L. A. (1968). Limits for qualitative detection and quantitative determination. *Analytical Chemistry*, 40(3), 586–593.

Currie, L. A. (1995). Nomenclature in evaluation of analytical methods including detection and quantification capabilities (IUPAC Recommendations). *Pure and Applied Chemistry*, 67(10), 1699–1723.

文物与艺术保护

Brandi, C. (1963). *Teoria del restauro*. Roma: Edizioni di Storia e Letteratura.

de Guichen, G. (1999). Preventive conservation: a mere fad or far-reaching change? *Museum International*, 51(1), 4–6.

Michalski, S. *Agents of Deterioration*. Canadian Conservation Institute.

Muñoz Viñas, S. (2005). *Contemporary Theory of Conservation*. Oxford: Elsevier.

Laurenson, P. (2006). Authenticity, change and loss in the conservation of time-based media installations. *Tate Papers*, 6.

分界所涉

Rose, G. (1981). Strategy of prevention: lessons from cardiovascular disease. *BMJ*, 282, 1847–1851. —— (1985). Sick individuals and sick populations. *International Journal of Epidemiology*, 14(1), 32–38.

Merton, R. K. (1940). Bureaucratic structure and personality. *Social Forces*, 18(4), 560–568.

Selznick, P. (1949). *TVA and the Grass Roots*. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Campbell, D. T. (1976). Assessing the impact of planned social change. Occasional Paper Series, No. 8.

Goodhart, C. (1975). Problems of monetary management: the U.K. experience.

Olson, M. (1965). *The Logic of Collective Action*. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Wald, A. (1943). A method of estimating plane vulnerability based on damage of survivors. Statistical Research Group.

Rubin, D. B. (1974). Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies. *Journal of Educational Psychology*, 66(5), 688–701.

Laibson, D. (1997). Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting. *Quarterly Journal of Economics*, 112(2), 443–477.

Marmot, M. (2005). Social determinants of health inequalities. *The Lancet*, 365(9464), 1099–1104.

政策文献

国家中医药管理局：《“治未病”健康工程实施方案（2008——2010年）》及后续相关文件。

第八章　悬量

中医典籍

《黄帝内经·素问·四气调神大论》。《难经·七十七难》。孙思邈《备急千金要方》。

物理学

Bak, P., Tang, C., & Wiesenfeld, K. (1987). Self-organized criticality: An explanation of 1/f noise. *Physical Review Letters*, 59(4), 381–384.

Bak, P. (1996). *How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality*. New York: Copernicus.

Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., et al. (2009). Early-warning signals for critical transitions. *Nature*, 461, 53–59.

Ditlevsen, P. D., & Johnsen, S. J. (2010). Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking. *Geophysical Research Letters*, 37, L19703.

Stumpf, M. P. H., & Porter, M. A. (2012). Critical truths about power laws. *Science*, 335(6069), 665–666.

心理学

Sheeran, P. (2002). Intention--behavior relations: A conceptual and empirical review. *European Review of Social Psychology*, 12(1), 1–36.

Webb, T. L., & Sheeran, P. (2006). Does changing behavioral intentions engender behavior change? *Psychological Bulletin*, 132(2), 249–268.

Gollwitzer, P. M. (1999). Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. *American Psychologist*, 54(7), 493–503.

Higgins, E. T. (1997). Beyond pleasure and pain. *American Psychologist*, 52(12), 1280–1300.

Beilock, S. L., & Carr, T. H. (2001). On the fragility of skilled performance. *Journal of Experimental Psychology: General*, 130(4), 701–725.

Nahum-Shani, I., Smith, S. N., Spring, B. J., et al. (2018). Just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) in mobile health. *Annals of Behavioral Medicine*, 52(6), 446–462.

工程学

Nowlan, F. S., & Heap, H. F. (1978). *Reliability-Centered Maintenance*. United Airlines / U.S. Department of Defense, AD-A066579.

Moubray, J. (1997). *Reliability-Centred Maintenance* (2nd ed.). Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann.

分界所涉

Rose, G. (1981). Strategy of prevention: lessons from cardiovascular disease. *BMJ*, 282, 1847–1851. —— (1985). Sick individuals and sick populations. *International Journal of Epidemiology*, 14(1), 32–38.

Welch, H. G., Schwartz, L. M., & Woloshin, S. (2011). *Overdiagnosed: Making People Sick in the Pursuit of Health*. Boston: Beacon Press.

Krogsbøll, L. T., Jørgensen, K. J., & Gøtzsche, P. C. General health checks in adults for reducing morbidity and mortality from disease. *Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews*.

Merton, R. K. (1940). Bureaucratic structure and personality. *Social Forces*, 18(4), 560–568.

Campbell, D. T. (1976). Assessing the impact of planned social change. Occasional Paper Series, No. 8.

Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). *Nudge*. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Laibson, D. (1997). Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting. *Quarterly Journal of Economics*, 112(2), 443–477.

政策文献

国家中医药管理局：《“治未病”健康工程实施方案（2008——2010年）》及后续相关文件。

第九章　功债

中医典籍

《黄帝内经·素问·四气调神大论》《素问·宣明五气》。孙思邈《备急千金要方》。

细胞学

Hayflick, L., & Moorhead, P. S. (1961). The serial cultivation of human diploid cell strains. *Experimental Cell Research*, 25(3), 585–621.

Campisi, J., & d'Adda di Fagagna, F. (2007). Cellular senescence: when bad things happen to good cells. *Nature Reviews Molecular Cell Biology*, 8(9), 729–740.

Coppé, J.-P., Patil, C. K., Rodier, F., et al. (2008). Senescence-associated secretory phenotypes reveal cell-nonautonomous functions of oncogenic RAS. *PLoS Biology*, 6(12), e301.

Krizhanovsky, V., Yon, M., Dickins, R. A., et al. (2008). Senescence of activated stellate cells limits liver fibrosis. *Cell*, 134(4), 657–667.

Baker, D. J., Wijshake, T., Tchkonia, T., et al. (2011). Clearance of p16Ink4a-positive senescent cells delays ageing-associated disorders. *Nature*, 479, 232–236.

Baker, D. J., Childs, B. G., Durik, M., et al. (2016). Naturally occurring p16Ink4a-positive cells shorten healthy lifespan. *Nature*, 530, 184–189.

Acosta, J. C., Banito, A., Wuestefeld, T., et al. (2013). A complex secretory program orchestrated by the inflammasome controls paracrine senescence. *Nature Cell Biology*, 15(8), 978–990.

Muñoz-Espín, D., & Serrano, M. (2014). Cellular senescence: from physiology to pathology. *Nature Reviews Molecular Cell Biology*, 15(7), 482–496.

Franceschi, C., Bonafè, M., Valensin, S., et al. (2000). Inflamm-aging: an evolutionary perspective on immunosenescence. *Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences*, 908, 244–254.

工程学

Rasmussen, J. (1997). Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem. *Safety Science*, 27(2–3), 183–213.

Amalberti, R. (2001). The paradoxes of almost totally safe transportation systems. *Safety Science*, 37(2–3), 109–126.

Dekker, S. (2011). *Drift into Failure*. Farnham: Ashgate.

Hollnagel, E. (2009). *The ETTO Principle: Efficiency-Thoroughness Trade-Off*. Farnham: Ashgate. —— (2014). *Safety-I and Safety-II*. Farnham: Ashgate.

Woods, D. D. (2015). Four concepts for resilience and the implications for the future of resilience engineering. *Reliability Engineering & System Safety*, 141, 5–9.

Cunningham, W. (1992). The WyCash portfolio management system. *OOPSLA '92 Experience Report*.

管理学

Ocasio, W. (1997). Towards an attention-based view of the firm. *Strategic Management Journal*, 18(S1), 187–206.

March, J. G. (1991). Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. *Organization Science*, 2(1), 71–87.

Levinthal, D. A., & March, J. G. (1993). The myopia of learning. *Strategic Management Journal*, 14(S2), 95–112.

March, J. G., Schulz, M., & Zhou, X. (2000). *The Dynamics of Rules: Change in Written Organizational Codes*. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Merton, R. K. (1940). Bureaucratic structure and personality. *Social Forces*, 18(4), 560–568.

Miller, D. (1990). *The Icarus Paradox*. New York: HarperBusiness.

Leonard-Barton, D. (1992). Core capabilities and core rigidities. *Strategic Management Journal*, 13(S1), 111–125.

Geertz, C. (1963). *Agricultural Involution*. Berkeley: University of California Press.